2018/11/02 13:30 - 2018/11/02 15:00
主题：The Hot Hand Fallacy Fallacy
主讲人：Joshua Miller （University of Alicante)
摘要：The hot hand fallacy has long been considered a massive and widespread cognitive illusion with important implications for decision making. We uncover a subtle, but critical, statistical bias that invalidates previous evidence supporting the hot hand fallacyin its canonical domain, basketball shooting. We re-assess and re-analyze basketball shooting and betting data. We find that the hot hand exists, and that players can bet on it successfully.
Joshua Miller is an economist at the University of Alicante (Spain). He received his PhD in Economics from the University of Minnesota. He works primarily in the areas of behavioral and experimental economics. His current research interests focus on information processing, judgment under uncertainty, and belief aggregation.
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